On October 23, 2009, Ed Peruta filed his lawsuit seeking a concealed carry permit from San Diego Sheriff Gore. That was 2,768 days ago and Mr. Peruta is still waiting for a final resolution of his lawsuit. His cert petition was rescheduled for this Thursday. The results of this Thursday’s conference of justices will be released on Tuesday morning, May 30th.
Statistically speaking, the probability of the US Supreme Court deciding to hear Mr. Peruta’s appeal will drop to 6.6% if his cert petition is not granted in the next conference. This is still better than the 1 in 100 chance he had when his cert petition asking the Supreme Court to review his case was first filed but playing Russian Roulette has better odds of success.
Recognizing that cert petitions are not ball bearings and might not be amenable to the same statistical analysis as mass produced objects, the success or failure of a cert petition is often dependent upon arcane rules, procedures and (to be honest) personal whims of the justices.
One thing we know for certain is that it takes the vote of four justices to grant a cert petition and after having been considered in three private conferences by the justices, there have not been four justices who have voted to grant Mr. Peruta’s petition.
by Charles Nichols